See the posted real mortgage rate.
Most people pay more on their mortgage than they need to. Drag the slider to your rate and see where you land against what Canadians are actually signing right now.
Drawn from 1,066 real 5-year fixed offers · as of Aug 27
Free, no signup, and we don't share anything unless you ask.
Built on 68,000+ real offers since 2006, benchmarked against Bank of Canada data.
The discount people are actually getting
How far below the going rate people who shopped around actually signed, shared by the borrowers themselves. Fixed is measured against the posted rate, variable against prime. It's what good negotiating gets, not the average outcome. Check your own rate to see where you land.
The sticker price
What the big lenders show
How far each lender's best advertised rate sits below the posted rate. Even these specials stay above what people actually sign.
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The invisible discount
What people actually got, month by month
There's no Bank of Canada posted series for a 2-year term, so the attained rate stands on its own.
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Renewing this year?
People who signed a 5-year fixed in 2021 typically got 1.84%. Renewing that today lands near 4.19%, about $485 more a month on a $500,000 mortgage.
People who signed a 3-year fixed in 2023 typically got 5.94%. Renewing that today lands near 4.04%, about $494 less a month on a $500,000 mortgage.
Origination rates are cohort medians from real offers (n = 197 and 130), re-amortized over the remaining years · every cohort, month by month
Market pressure
What's moving rates right now
Fixed rates are priced off the 5-year government bond; variable rates off the prime rate. Here's where each sits and which way it's heading.
Fixed rates track this
Steady3.22%5-yr bond yield
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, which lenders price fixed mortgages off, has held roughly steady over the past three months, so fixed rates have little push either way.
Variable rates track this
Steady4.45%Prime rate
The prime rate, set from the Bank of Canada's policy rate, hasn't moved in three months. Variable rates, quoted as prime minus a discount, are steady with it.
The backdrop
Inflation and the job market are what the Bank of Canada weighs when it moves the policy rate that drives prime, which in turn feeds the bond market that sets fixed rates.
Where pricing sits right now
2.87%
posted over the 5-yr bond
tighter than its 3.29% 3-year norm
0.96%
margin lenders keep over the bond
thinner than 96% of the last 4 years — good for borrowers
0.25%
what shopping hard is worth
about typical for the record
The reality check
In June 2026, chartered banks funded 5-year fixed mortgages at an average of 4.35% uninsured and 4.01% insured (Bank of Canada). People in our data signed that same month at a median of 4.24% uninsured and 4.09% insured. On the uninsured side, that difference is what shopping around buys: the funded average counts everyone, including people who signed their lender's first offer.
Bank of Canada funds-advanced series, chartered banks · our corpus, same month, n = 97 offers · what shopping around gets, not the average
The spread between major lenders is small, so negotiating hard off posted matters more than which big lender you pick. See who's cheapest right now. Rate figures trace to the Bank of Canada's published series.
The rate outlook
Where interest rates are headed
What the futures market and the forecasters expect for the Bank of Canada rate.
The 5-year Government of Canada bond, which sets fixed mortgage rates, is at 3.22% and has held steady over the past three months. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate, the anchor for variable rates (prime 4.45%), sits at 2.25%, and both the futures market and bank economists see it edging higher into 2027 rather than falling. For now, core inflation is 1.9%, back at the 2% target, while unemployment at 6.4% points to a softening labour market.
Next meeting
A hold is fully priced for the next meeting.
By end of 2026
About one 25 bps hike is priced in by December 2026.
With cuts likely finished, the market and economists both expect a gradual rise from here.
Projected overnight rate
Where each forecaster sees the Bank of Canada overnight rate going. All three agree it holds near 2.25% through 2026; the futures market prices earlier and larger hikes than bank economists or the Bank's own survey do.
Sources: Montréal Exchange · Major bank economics forecasts · Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey · market line updated 2026-08-27
What the Bank of Canada's own survey shows
The median participant sees the policy rate held at 2.25% through 2026, with the first increase around the second quarter of 2027.
Bank of Canada, Market Participants Survey · as of 2026-Q2
What bank economists expect
A hold at 2.25% through 2026, then a modest rise toward 2.50–2.75% by early-to-mid 2027; cuts are seen as complete.
Consensus of major Canadian bank economics forecasts (RBC, TD, Scotiabank, CIBC, BMO, National Bank) · as of 2026-06
The leaderboard
Who's giving the best rates
Ranked by how far below the posted rate their borrowers actually signed: the invisible discount, by lender.
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Typical is the median discount off the posted rate; sharpest is the deepest discount, from the 10th-percentile rate. Discounts are in percentage points off your rate. Brokers and marketplaces are a channel, not a lender, so they are shown separately, not here.
The forecast
Where 5-year fixed is headed
Our model reads the bond market, jobs, inflation, and housing to project the achievable rate and where it is heading. This is a projection, separate from the live attained rates above.
Lenders are holding an unusually thin margin over the 5-year bond right now. This projection assumes that margin holds, so the achievable rate would drift higher if it widens back to normal.
Model's read
4.39%
projected achievable
Posted 5-year
6.09%
the sticker rate
5-year GoC yield
3.28%
the forecast's anchor
If the 5-year bond yield moves over 3 months:
The economic data behind it
What is the real mortgage rate in Canada right now?
The real rate is what borrowers are actually signing for, which sits well below the posted (sticker) rate lenders advertise. Unposted shows the current achievable rate for your exact profile, drawn from offers people report getting and benchmarked against Bank of Canada data.
Why is the posted mortgage rate higher than the rate I can actually get?
The posted rate is a public list price that almost nobody pays. Lenders negotiate down from it, and an engaged shopper, especially through a broker, typically signs below even the advertised special. The posted rate mainly matters because some prepayment penalties are calculated from it.
How far below the posted rate do Canadians actually sign?
In our data the gap has run roughly 150 to 300 basis points depending on the rate cycle. It is not advertised because it is discretionary and negotiated case by case, which is the whole reason a benchmark like this exists.
Where does Unposted's mortgage rate data come from?
From rates borrowers publicly report getting, anchored to the Bank of Canada's published market data. People who share their rates skew toward engaged shoppers, so we call these achievable rates, not a market average, and every figure carries its sample size and date. The full method is on our methodology page.
Why are these rates lower than what my bank offered me?
Because they come from people who shopped around. Borrowers who compare lenders, use a broker, or negotiate their renewal sign meaningfully below a first offer, and those are the people who share their rates. Bank of Canada data backs this up: the average rate banks actually funded runs above our medians. The gap between your offer and our numbers is what shopping around is worth, and closing it is the point of this site.
Is a variable rate better than a fixed rate in Canada?
History gives a real answer, though not a prediction. For every year since 2007 we followed what that year's borrowers actually signed on both sides through the prime-rate path that came next, to the dollar of interest paid over the full 5-year term. Variable came out ahead in most completed years, but fixed won in exactly the stretches where rates spiked, which is when protection matters most. See the year-by-year scoreboard →
How much will my mortgage payment go up at renewal?
It depends almost entirely on the year you signed. Someone renewing a 5-year fixed from the low-rate years faces a real monthly increase, while some shorter cohorts that signed at the 2023 peak actually renew into lower payments. We track every origination cohort's signed rate and what renewing into today's market means per month. Find your cohort →
Do mortgage brokers get better rates than banks?
In our data, modestly, yes. Comparing like for like, the same product in the same month, broker-negotiated offers come in slightly below direct bank offers in most comparable cells. The bigger effect is shopping itself: people who compare at all sign well below people who take the first offer, whichever channel they use.
Can you negotiate your mortgage renewal rate?
Yes, and renewals are where the least negotiation happens, because the lender's letter makes staying put feel automatic. The gap between what a typical borrower signs and what the sharpest shoppers sign is real money on every renewal, and our market pressure section tracks what shopping hard is worth right now.
Is Unposted a mortgage offer or financial advice?
No. Unposted is an information tool, not a mortgage broker, lender, or advisor, and nothing here is a mortgage offer or personalized advice. Always confirm details with a licensed professional.
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